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“Now, this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” –Winston Churchill
It is not an agreement. Just a plan.
But the political ice that has frozen politicians and shut down the government for 37 days is softening.
Barely.
THE HITCHHIKER’S GUIDE TO WHERE WE ARE WITH A POSSIBLE DISRUPTION IN THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN
“There appears to be some indication of a thaw,” said Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn.
Let’s be real:
Both Republican and Democratic lawmakers are nervous about the shutdown. They are dying for aviation. There is growing concern among bipartisan lawmakers about federal workers not getting paid and ending emergency food benefits known as SNAP. Everyone wants a deal. However, no one knows where to find it.
Any agreement will be about mathematics. But the members are locked in this locked box and can’t find the combination to escape.
There is movement at the Capitol for the first time since the government shut down on October 1; As Churchill once said, it is “perhaps the end of the beginning.” (Mehmet Eser/Anadolu via Getty Images)
That’s why it’s significant that there are at least attempts to swing Congress to open the government. But that may take a while.
That’s why it’s notable that, for the first time since October 1, politicians are even trying to get the wheels of government turning again.
“I’m an optimist and I think we should do something this week,” said Sen. Mike Rounds, RSD. “I think there’s a way forward here.”
On Tuesday, Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., believed the Senate would vote soon.
“I think it could probably happen Thursday. It could be pushed back to Friday, but most likely it will be Thursday,” Mullin said.
But the Oklahoma Republican offered this warning.
“I’m just making assumptions,” Mullin cautioned.
ABOUT A MONTH AFTER THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN AND THERE IS NO END IN SIGHT, BUT THE PREDICTIONS CORRESPOND
This is the government shutdown of 2025. And no one knows anything.
Mullin returned to FOX Business on Wednesday, recalibrating what he said the day before.
“There’s been a group working in a very strong bipartisan way, saying once this election is over, we’re going to reopen. And today, they came back with some of the most ridiculous demands to take authority away from President Trump: They wanted us as the Senate to guarantee what the House can and can’t do. And it’s just not feasible,” Mullin said.
Republicans have long known that the stopgap spending bill passed by the House (as of September 19) simply doesn’t work anymore. Even if the Senate sided with the House, that legislation only funds the government through November 21. And that would return Congress to where it began on October 1 with a shutdown.
Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., says “there’s been a group working in a very strong bipartisan way,” but “they came back with some of the most ridiculous demands to take authority away from President Trump.” (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
Republicans then began considering a longer temporary spending bill that would extend through the end of January.
“We’ve lost five weeks. So the Nov. 21 deadline doesn’t make much sense anymore,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., referring to the completion date of the original spending bill, which has not yet passed the Senate.
But Republicans need buy-in from Democrats to break the filibuster on any bill aimed at ending the record shutdown.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., was circumspect when asked what Democrats might support after a long lunch of Democratic senators on Tuesday.
“We had a very good meeting and are exploring all options,” was Schumer’s bland response.
OFF SEEN FROM THE PULPIT: MOVING FORWARD ON A WING AND A PRAYER
But despite the discussions, no one is exactly sure what might attract Democratic votes. Especially since the Republicans won’t budge.
“It seems like they’re pretty entrenched and doing well, screwing people over with their health care,” Sen said. Mark Kelly, Democrat of Arizona.
Schumer and a group of Senate Democrats outraged House liberals when they helped the GOP avoid a filibuster on a government funding bill in March. So it’s only natural that House Democrats fear being burned again.
“How much skepticism would there be on the part of House Democrats about any kind of deal that came out of the Senate?” Yours truly asked House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y.
“We said from the beginning that we would evaluate in good faith any bipartisan agreement that comes out of the Senate,” Jeffries said.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., says his caucus has said from the beginning that they “will evaluate in good faith any bipartisan agreement that comes out of the Senate.” (Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images)
And that’s why the government is likely to remain shut down for a while, even though there are genuine efforts to resolve the crisis.
“I don’t think any of us expected this to go on this long,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La.
But on Thursday, Senate Republicans developed a new plan that they hoped could end the government shutdown.
Or at least liquefy the ice a little more.
OPTIMISM DISAPPEARS AS SENATE DEMOCRATS ADVANCE AND RESIST OVER OBAMACARE DEMANDS
Republicans are challenging Democrats to block a test vote on a new tactic that would fund the Department of Veterans Affairs and military construction projects, the Department of Agriculture and Congress itself. That represents three of the 12 areas of federal spending that Congress must approve each year. This plan would fund those three sectors through Sept. 30, 2026. Lawmakers would attach another Band-Aid spending bill for the rest of the government through the end of January. But it was unclear whether Democrats would agree.
“I’m less optimistic this morning than I was yesterday,” Johnson said. “What I understand is that Chuck Schumer has taken them away from that and they are instructing them and telling them that they can’t go there.”
And progressives are once again leaning on Schumer.
Especially after his decision to help fund the government in March.
“You have to keep doing it and we have to achieve a victory because we cannot allow what happened in the spring to happen again,” Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., told her colleague Aishah Hasnie.
Progressives once again lean on Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. (Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Democrats feel strengthened after Tuesday’s election results.
“There is no reason to give up now. Every reason to stay strong,” Blumenthal said. “Tuesday’s message simply confirms what we have been hearing over and over again.”
The plan could include an agreement to hold a vote at a certain date in the future related to health care subsidies. That is the key request of the Democrats. But Democrats want more: a guarantee that Congress will offset ObamaCare’s rising costs.
With the House not voting since Sept. 19, Democrats are resorting to political guerilla tactics to make their points on the shutdown.
Rep. Chrissy Houlahan, D-Pa., appeared at a news conference of House Republican leaders on Wednesday and intimidated Johnson. The US Capitol Police attempted to remove Houlahan, until they realized he was a member of Congress.
Johnson called Houlahan’s interruption “below her.”
TRAVEL INDUSTRY SOUNDS ALARM ABOUT HOW SHUTDOWN WILL IMPACT AMERICANS BEFORE THANKSGIVING
Rep. Yassamin Ansari, D-Ariz., set up a table outside the president’s office Thursday afternoon, promising to answer questions, discuss Epstein’s medical care and files. Ansari says Capitol Police told her they could “be arrested if the table is not moved.”
Ansari touted healthcare subsidies as the country’s air traffic controllers continue to work without pay.
“They are heroes. They keep us safe every day,” Ansari said of the controllers.
But he added a warning:
“Is it more important than 24 million Americans losing their health insurance or being unable to pay their rent?” Ansari asked. “No.”
Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., said air travel threatened by the shutdown “is nothing to waste time on.” (Valerie Plesch/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Concerns about aviation are affecting the nation. But only a Republican says out loud what everyone thinks.
“All it takes is one small accident. What if people die?” said Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo. “So air travel is not something to waste time on.”
Even if the Senate votes this week, few expect immediate progress.
“My hopes and expectations are always that we’re going to have enough Democrats to actually proceed. But I don’t know. We’ll see,” Thune said. “Democrats are having a hard time taking yes for an answer.”
Sen. John Kennedy, R-Louisiana, offered his own time frame.
SEN. JOHN KENNEDY PREDICTS HOW LONG THE SHUTDOWN WILL LAST, SAYS DEMOCRATS ARE STILL ‘TRAMPING ON THEIR LITTLE FEET’
“We are at least seven days and more likely 10 and quite possibly two weeks away from opening, best-case scenario,” Kennedy said.
Democrats are divided on what they want to do. Still, many want an exit ramp. And progressives are ready to be furious if moderate Democrats burn them again.
So we are far from the end of the government shutdown saga. But we are no longer at the beginning. Perhaps that will be a consolation for those following the closure.
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After all, everything that begins usually ends.
Eventually.