What will Trump do next with Iran? : NPR

President Donald Trump has staked much of his political identity on his skill as a negotiator capable of bending his adversaries to his will.

But Iran, until now, has been resistant to that approach. Since the United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran in late February,

A 38-day military campaign has given way to a fragile ceasefire, a mutual blockade centered on the Strait of Hormuz and a cycle of stalled negotiations marked by Trump’s repeated threats to resume large-scale attacks. For more than six weeks, the two countries have been locked in a standoff that has shaken global energy markets, regional stability and Trump’s domestic political standing.

It has left governments, militaries, corporations and communities around the world wondering: “What will Trump do next?”

On Monday, Trump announced that he had canceled a planned military strike at the request of his Arab Gulf allies. He then said that “serious negotiations are now underway,” adding that multiple regional partners (United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia) had told him they believed “an agreement will be reached that will be very acceptable to the United States of America.”

But even as he announced the pause, Trump told his military commanders to remain on standby for “a full-scale, full-scale attack on Iran, at any time, should an acceptable deal not be reached.” That marked the latest twist in what has become a recurring cycle for Trump during this conflict: a deadline, a threat, a pushback, another threat.

Three of Trump’s main stated war goals – for Iran to abandon its nuclear program, stop ballistic missile development and end support for Iran’s proxy forces in Gaza, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen – remain unfulfilled.

Iran’s response to this latest White House pause was not conciliatory.

“The fingers of our armed forces are on the trigger, while diplomacy also continues,” Mohsen Rezaei, a military adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, said on state television.

Iran’s influence across the Strait

The central point of the impasse is the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas passed before the conflict began. Iran’s effective closure of the waterway, even as the United States continues to impose its own blockade of Iranian ports, has driven up energy prices around the world and created a direct problem for American consumers.

An analysis of average gas prices nationwide by AAA shows that they have increased more than 50% since the start of the conflict. An AP-NORC poll conducted last week showed that only a third of Americans currently approve of Trump’s handling of the economy.

Trump’s decision to use maximum economic and military pressure worked against Venezuela and put serious pressure on Cuba. But Iran presents a different challenge because of its ability to threaten one of the world’s most critical energy bottlenecks.

Another challenge is that both sides believe that playing the waiting game will eventually work in their favor. Vali Nasr, a scholar of Iranian politics at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, told NPR morning edition that the current leadership in Tehran has drawn a clear distinction between Trump’s military threats, which Iranian officials consider sincere, and his invitations to diplomatic activities, which are not.

“Iran doesn’t take it seriously when it says it wants to negotiate,” Nasr said, adding that Iranian officials have interpreted American diplomatic signals as a strategy designed to buy time and sow internal confusion rather than reach a genuine agreement. On several occasions, the United States and Israel have launched attacks against Iran in the midst of negotiations.

There is no clear ending

On the question of whether the conflict could turn into a prolonged, frozen stalemate, Nasr said he was skeptical that the current stalemate would continue.

“The Strait of Hormuz cannot remain closed indefinitely, and the United States cannot maintain this blockade indefinitely,” he said, citing the cost to the broader global economy as well as the limits on US naval capabilities. “I don’t think we’re talking about months, maybe a month.”

Despite its losses on the battlefield, Iran has managed to keep its government operations largely intact and its control over the Strait largely intact. But questions remain about Iran’s long-term nuclear ambitions, which the country’s leaders have long insisted are civilian in nature. Trump has at times threatened to destroy them. But the government in Tehran is inconsistent about its right to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.

The White House, for its part, maintains that its current position has been successful.

“President Trump holds all the cards and wisely keeps all options on the table,” White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales repeatedly insisted to reporters this week.