Primaries used to be only the first step in the electoral process; Now they have been transformed, in many places, at the moment when the elections are practically decided. It is shaping Congress.
JUANA VERANOS, PRESENTER:
This week on the show we hear about big elections in Texas, Maine and California. In recent weeks, it was Louisiana, Georgia and Indiana. These are all primary elections to choose who will participate in the fall general election. But in today’s politics, in many places the primary elections are the place where the general election is practically decided, and that determines the behavior of Congress. Political correspondent Ashley Lopez and Congressional reporter Eric McDaniel are here in the studio to break it all down. Hello you two.
ASHLEY LOPEZ, BYLINE: Hello.
ERIC MCDANIEL, BYLINE: Hello.
SUMMERS: Ashley, I’ll start with you. Many voters, as we know, don’t start paying attention to the midterm elections until the fall. So why focus on the primaries?
LÓPEZ: Well, because the primary elections decide who ends up in Congress, not the general elections in November in which, yes, the majority of voters will participate. I mean, this has been true for House seats for the past few election cycles, but there are a couple of trends this year that are changing the stakes and outcomes of the primaries.
VERANOS: And how is that? What is different this year?
LÓPEZ: I mean, one important thing is that the redistricting battle started by President Trump last year, all of these new maps have led to the fewest competitive congressional races in recent history. That means that in the overwhelming majority of seats – more than 90% – one party is already the favorite to win. So voters really only have the ability to determine who wins in the primaries, which, as we mentioned, actually have far fewer voters participating. The other factor is that there have been some changes to the primary structure. States are choosing to exclude voters who are not registered with a party from these races, which are called closed primaries. This is something that John Opdycke, who works for a group called Open Primaries, has been watching closely.
JOHN OPDYCKE: And now what we are seeing is that the parties have said: Okay, we have manipulated the country into oblivion. There’s not much more control we can do. Now we have to start closing these open primaries. And the Democrats are doing it and the Republicans are doing it.
LÓPEZ: And the result of all this is a system that basically ensures that smaller groups of more ideological voters determine who gets into Congress well before the midterm elections later this fall.
SUMMERS: All right, Eric, it’s your turn. Does such a limited election affect the real functioning of Congress?
MCDANIEL: Sure, of course I do. I mean, people respond to incentives, right? So if you have to compete in a general election, you try to attract as many Americans as possible. However, if you only have to worry about the party primaries, you just have to attract as many supporters as possible. And the parliamentarians I spoke to for this article told me that’s bad for Congress. Brian Fitzpatrick, Republican of Pennsylvania.
BRIAN FITZPATRICK: What is the demonstration in the House? It’s horrible. There are so many people who are prevented from doing the right thing and supporting the right policy because of politics, because of closed primaries, because of the two-party system.
MCDANIEL: Now, you could say, well, Brian Fitzpatrick, he’s just responding to his own incentives. It’s in a swing district. He has to win a tough general election race. Of course he is going to talk about bipartisanship and compromise and wanting to be an independent politician. But of course, that’s also the kind of thing most Americans want to see.
SUMMERS: What role does the president play here?
MCDANIEL: You know, I actually think this is the best way to show how skewed things are. Trump is monumentally unpopular in America as a whole, but if you only look at the Republican primaries, you would have no idea. Their teams continue to win. But single-party primaries aren’t the only way the country can get things done.
VERANOS: Okay. Give me an example.
MCDANIEL: Well, in Louisiana, the Senate primaries used to be ones where all voters, regardless of party, voted on the same ballot. But they changed the rules for this year to make it a closed primary. You can only vote for candidates who represent the party in which you are registered. And that appears to have played a big role in the end of incumbent Bill Cassidy’s career. He is a Republican who voted to convict President Trump on impeachment charges in 2021.
VERANOS: Okay, Eric. You mentioned Louisiana. Are there other states that allow everyone to intervene? Ashley, does that exist in other states?
LÓPEZ: Yes, it is, but not in many. That’s why, in the voting world, these are known as nonpartisan primaries. Basically, they take away party control in the primary and allow all eligible voters the ability to vote for any candidate regardless of party, all on the same ballot. And right now, California, Washington and Alaska have these types of primary systems. And advocates of nonpartisan primaries point out that closed primaries, or even partisan primaries in general, are leaving out the fastest-growing part of the American electorate, which are independent and unaffiliated voters. We often think of these voters as centrists, but in reality, all types of voters across the political spectrum are not aligning with either party right now. And in many states, they can’t participate in arguably the most important elections.
MCDANIEL: Ashley mentioned Alaska there, and that state actually used to have a closed system. Lisa Murkowski lost her Republican Senate primary in 2010 to a far-right rival. And she had to win the election as a write-in candidate, which is quite a feat. Then, when they changed the system for the 2022 primary to use the system Ashley was describing, Murkowski became the only Republican senator to support Trump’s impeachment and win re-election.
SUMMERS: Interesting. Could we see other states adopt more inclusive systems?
LÓPEZ: I mean, it’s possible, but efforts to create nonpartisan primaries in more states have actually proven to be an uphill battle. In 2024, several states had ballot measures to create nonpartisan primaries, but voters rejected them across the country. I mean, the other way to change primary systems is through state legislatures, but as we’ve seen with redistricting, state legislators have been more than happy to do whatever it takes to protect their political parties, or at least, they just don’t have the incentives right now to disarm in what is an increasingly polarized political environment.
SUMMERS: NPR’s Ashley Lopez and Eric McDaniel, thank you both.
MCDANIEL: Any time.
LÓPEZ: Yes, thank you.
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