Children play on the border wall between Mexico and the United States in Playas de Tijuana, Mexico, on May 10. Border security has been a major theme in Republican ads during the 2026 midterm campaign.
Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images
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Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images
Republicans are leaning toward immigration enforcement as one of their top campaign issues this midterm cycle, despite a rocky start to the year for messaging on the president’s top policy.
An NPR analysis of advertising data from the firm AdImpact shows that when it comes to immigration, Republicans spend more money and run more ads than Democrats. The data set includes ads purchased between January and June, before immigration agents shot and killed people in Maine and Texas this month.
These political ads offer an indication of where each party sees its momentum among voters as candidates across the country prepare for the November general election. The data suggests that Republicans see immigration as a winning issue: Since the beginning of the year, Republicans and organizations that support them have run nearly 300 ads nationwide that include a mention of immigration or are solely about immigration. This compares to 62 ads from Democrats and their supporting organizations.
“Republicans stood up for Americans. Democrats stood up for illegals. Thomas Massie sides with these radical left lunatics,” reads an ad funded by MAGA KY PAC, a political action committee that was created to defeat Republican Rep. Thomas Massie in the primary. The ad cost around $831,000; Massie, a frequent critic of President Trump, lost his race to Trump-backed candidate Ed Gallrein.
Among the most expensive was the purchase of a $928,000 ad in the Michigan governor’s race.
“There is no greater example of waste, fraud and abuse in Michigan than using our tax dollars to give benefits to illegal immigrants. As governor, I will be incredibly supportive of ICE coming here and taking down these scammers,” says Republican candidate Perry Johnson, a self-described “MAGA conservative” who has pitched his business-like approach to running a state.
Immigration was a winning issue for Republicans in the 2024 elections, with issues such as increasing border security and reducing crime.
“Campaigns aren’t trying to change minds. They’re trying to shape what the election is about. They’re trying to energize existing voters,” said Cameron Shelton, a professor of political economy at Claremont McKenna College. “If Republicans are spending much more on immigration advertising, one interpretation is that they believe immigration is exactly that kind of [mobilizing] problem in today’s electorate.
Immigration and law enforcement are among the top issues for both sides
Most of the ads ran during the primary season, which is now more than halfway over. With more than 90% of the seats up for grabs in the gubernatorial, House and Senate elections considered safe for one party or another, the primary campaign has become decisive for many candidates across the country.
Some Democrats spoke more openly on the issue of immigration in early 2026, particularly in states that were experiencing intense enforcement surges. Democrats in New Jersey, Illinois and Minnesota, for example, referenced the administration’s tactics in their calls to “abolish ICE,” or Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and argued that the administration had gone too far.
The Illinois Future PAC ran two ads, each worth more than $800,000, earlier this year to support Juliana Stratton’s stance on abolishing ICE. The current lieutenant governor later won the Illinois Democratic primary for Senate.
But months into the year, Democrats have prioritized other issues, often to differentiate themselves from members of their own party, such as health care, while Republicans keep immigration-related issues on Americans’ screens.
During primary season, Shelton said, campaigns are testing issues they think might matter during the general election.
For both parties, “Donald Trump” is the top topic in TV ad buying, according to AdImpact data. “Immigration” is the issue that generates the second largest spending for Republicans; for Democrats, “ICE” is third highest, after “health care.”
“It’s a signal to donors, it’s a signal to activists, interest groups, local candidates. It helps coordinate a lot of the players that we consider the party,” Shelton said. “That’s another reason why some of these early announcements are interesting, because they’re signs of the direction they’re trying to set.”
Republicans link major issues to immigration
Between January and June, Republicans spent about $36 million more than Democrats on immigration-related political advertising. Republican ads focused on immigration, totaling $53 million in spending, have aired nationwide in 88 races and 27 states. Ads by Democratic candidates, totaling $17 million, have run in 20 races and 11 states, primarily those that have seen increased immigration enforcement measures, such as California, New York and Illinois.
“The Republican candidates have a big menu of issues that we are on the right side of and that are all very popular with voters,” said Mike Marinella, national press secretary for the National Republican Congressional Committee. He listed the border, crime and the economy as issues that Republican candidates can connect to immigration.
“Immigration intersects with every one of them,” he said. “The most effective message depends on the district and how those issues affect that particular community,” he added.
Zach Lahn, who won Iowa’s Republican gubernatorial primary, spent about $475,000 on an ad in May promising to ban H-1B visa holders from being hired by Iowa government agencies. and universities, linking immigration and economic concerns.
Border crossings have plummeted since Trump took office. Marinella said the candidates still keep the issue of border security as a priority for their voters.
Most ads promoting Republican candidates include keywords like “secure the border” and talk about border wall funding and crime. Some also go a step further by talking about specific proposals supported by the administration, such as limiting commercial driver’s licenses and supporting the SAVE America Act, which would require stricter proof of citizenship to vote.
For example, in Florida’s 19th Congressional District, Jim Oberweis, one of several candidates vying for the GOP seat, spent $880,000 on seven ads advocating ending birthright citizenship.
Democrats lean toward pro-immigration statements
Ads promoting Democratic candidates, on the other hand, avoid specific policy proposals. Instead, they include criticism of the incumbents for recent votes on bills that have provided funding to immigration officials or expanded the scope of who could be detained. Others focus on personal connections to immigration, proposals to limit enforcement and general pro-immigrant statements.
“Democrats are finding their voice on immigration after a difficult few years during the Biden administration,” said Frank Sharry, a senior fellow at Third Way, a centrist think tank. “I don’t think they’ll run many ads on it. “I think they will talk about it and win the argument, which is more important than whether they run ads about it or not.”
A Gallup poll released in July shows that a majority of Americans think immigration is a good thing, and a majority support some form of path to citizenship rather than a blanket deportation policy, although there are stark differences by party. Most Republicans favor hiring more Border Patrol agents, deporting anyone without legal status and banning sanctuary cities.
Republican ads airing during Senate elections in Ohio, Texas and Alaska and gubernatorial races in New York and Iowa are already starting to target Democrats. Strategists said this trend suggests how each party may lean toward immigration ahead of the November elections. But they also warn against overinterpreting the announcements to evaluate the party’s strategy.
“In the past, ads were king. Now there are so many diverse streams of information coming to people on their phones that it’s just not the same,” Third Way’s Sharry said, noting that interviews, debates and other forms of public statements are not captured in ad data.