We have done it! Week 18 of the NFL season is here and the playoffs will begin soon. But we have some loose ends to tie up before we get to all that. We already know most of the teams destined for the playoffs, but there are some stragglers and, of course, the dreaded fight for playoff qualification. Guessing what NFL coaches will do is not something you want to make a living doing. But we should be able to narrow this down enough to have a good idea of who needs to win, who wants to win, and who doesn’t care if they win.
Please bookmark this post as we will continue to update it as news comes in.
Teams that will play with everything
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET)
The Falcons gave the Buccaneers some Christmas coal in their stocking by beating the Rams in Week 17. If the Falcons win this week over the Saints, the Buccaneers will be eliminated from the playoffs even if they beat the Panthers on Saturday. The good news for us fantasy players is that the NFL made that scenario moot with Saturday’s game. Both teams will play for victory. If the Panthers win, they win the division and the playoff spot. If the Bucs win, they will have to wait for the winner of Falcons-Saints to decide the NFC South champion between the Panthers and Bucs.
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers (Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET)
This game isn’t as desperate as winning and getting in, but whoever wins will get the #1 seed in the NFC and whoever loses will drop to #5. This one is pretty easy and both teams will play their starters in hopes of winning.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)
The Steelers blew a chance to clinch the AFC North when they laid an egg against the Browns in Week 17. The Ravens won their game against the Packers, making this matchup one of all the marbles. Whoever wins will take the North, fourth place and the only remaining spot in the AFC playoffs.
Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
The Chargers have already announced that they will rest Justin Herbert. The Broncos, on the other hand, need a win to clinch the No. 1 seed, which comes with a bye and home field advantage during the playoffs. They can still clinch the top spot if they lose and both the Jaguars and Patriots lose, but they won’t leave that to chance. They should play with their starters until the game is resolved.
New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
The Dolphins have nothing to play for, but the Patriots could finish with a 1, 2, or 3 seed in the AFC. To get the No. 1 spot they will need to win and for the Broncos to lose to the Chargers who are resting Herbert. If the Broncos win, the Patriots only need to beat the Dolphins to clinch second place. They could also lose and as long as the Jaguars lose, they would still get the second seed. If they lose and both the Jaguars and Broncos win, they will end up with third place.
The Patriots should want that second seed enough to go all-in.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
The Titans have been eliminated from playoff contention for a while now and a loss can only help their draft position. The Jaguars, on the other hand, have performed very well and even have a chance to reach the number one spot with a win. Unfortunately, the Chargers going with Trey Lance over Justin Herbert and the Patriots getting a relatively easy matchup with the Dolphins will likely ruin those plans, as they would need both teams to lose to get that coveted top spot.
The Jaguars have to beat the Titans if they want to clinch the AFC South title over the Texans, and still third place. And of course, a win gives them a chance at the No. 1 and No. 2 spots if the Broncos or Patriots falter. In theory, they could drop to seventh place with a loss. So they are playing to win.
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
The Colts have been eliminated and will give rookie quarterback Riley Leonard the start over Phillip Rivers. The Texans have a wide range of possible seeds between the No. 3 seed and the No. 7 seed. A win and a Jaguars loss to the Titans would give them the AFC South title and the third seed. A win secures them the No. 5 seed if the Jaguars win, while a loss could knock them down to No. 6 or 7. These scenarios should be enough for them to do everything they can to win this week.
Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
If the Bears win, they will get the second seed. If they lose and the Eagles win, they will get the third seed. Head coach Ben Johnson seemed adamant that they would play to win after their loss to the 49ers. One win and they face the Packers in the first round of the playoffs. If they lose, they will get the third seed and face either the 49ers or the Rams at home. I hope they play to win, but if the news changes we will update this post.
Will they do it or not?
Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
UPDATE 1/2 – Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni said he will rest some of his starters late in the season to rest them for the first round of the playoffs. Players already ruled out on the injury report include tight end Dallas Goedert, tackle Lane Johnson, defensive tackle Jalen Carter, outside linebacker Jaelan Phillips, linebacker Nakobe Dean and safety Marcus Epps. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is also expected to sit with Tanner McKee, who will likely start at quarterback.
The Eagles and Bears are tied this week as they both hope to clinch second place in the NFC. The Bears have the advantage as a win gives them the No. 2 seed, while the Eagles need a win and the Bears to lose. When asked, head coach Nick Sirianni was noncommittal as to whether anyone would be rested. The Eagles are guaranteed the No. 3 seed if they lose and/or the Bears win, but the No. 2 spots are worth playing for if they so desire.
Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
UPDATE 1/2 – Josh Allen practiced on a limited basis Friday and head coach Sean McDermott said he is “ready” for Sunday’s game, according to Mike Rose. Notably, Rose tweeted that McDermott “[d]I give no indication of how long [Allen would] go on Sunday. The Bills have numerous possible scenarios to secure the No. 5 seed, the no. 6 or 7 seed. Best guess is that Allen will play part of Sunday’s game, but not all of it.
The Jets have been out of contention for a while and need a loss to maintain or improve their current No. 3 pick. The Bills currently have the final playoff spot at No. 7, but could move up to No. 5 or No. 6 with a win. To move up to the No. 5 spot they will need to win and the Texans and Chargers to lose. To get the No. 6 seed, they will need to win and have one of the Texans or Chargers lose.
At this point we’re waiting for head coach Sean McDermott to give us more information on whether he’ll start, but we know world-class QB Josh Allen isn’t 100% right now and beating the Jets isn’t exactly that difficult. If I were them, I’d give Allen a break. And at this point I wouldn’t want to trust the Bills’ starters in fantasy games.
Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Head coach Sean McVay says his starters will play this week, but there isn’t much to play for. If they win and the 49ers lose, they would get the fifth seed. Every other scenario ends with the No. 6 spot. I could see McVay giving half to his starters and then closing things out. I’d rather not rely on the Rams players this week if I can help it.
New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
UPDATE 1/1 – Chris Olave will not play on Sunday. Nick Underhill reports that a blood clot was detected in his lung. He will be fine, but he will not play the end of the season.
The Saints and Falcons are eliminated from playoff contention, but Saturday afternoon could open the door for this game to mean something. If the Bucs beat the Panthers on Saturday, a Falcons win over the Saints would clinch the NFC South for the Panthers. Even if the Panthers win on Saturday and clinch the division, Saints-Falcons is one of the most entertaining rivalries from a fan perspective. It’s unclear if this will affect each team’s starting options.
Teams that will give their starters a rest
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Jim Harbaugh announced that Trey Lance would be the starter in Week 18 against the Broncos, which likely means other starters should also have rest or limited work. But even if all the other starters tried, Lance is going to have a blast against the Broncos defense in Denver.
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
UPDATE 1/1 – Jordan Love passed concussion protocol, but with the Packers unable to get out of the No. 7 spot, Clayton Tune will start, according to Jason B. Hirschhorn.
The Packers are locked in at No. 7, so they will rest key starters.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
The Raiders and Chiefs have no playoff hopes left, but the Raiders currently have the No. 1 pick in the 2026 draft and would like to keep it. They’ve sat their best defensive player, Maxx Crosby, and now they’re going to sit Geno Smith for a combination of Kenny Pickett and Aidan O’Connell, according to Vinny Bonsignore.