Washington-Russia could be forced to put an end to war in Ukraine, it will run out of money to pay their troops, according to experts at the Institute for the study of the DC War.
The country has burned approximately half of half of the $ 106 billion. Liquid Sovereign Health Fund, which is used to pay the salaries of the troops and new recruit bonds, experts said.
It is likely that Moscow can only afford another 12 to 16 months of struggle at its current rhythm, with approximately 30,000 to 45,000 Russian troops killed or wounded in Ukraine each since its invasion of 2022 began, the ISW Russia team led George George.
“The system to generate combatants worked for 2.5 years, but is beginning to fail,” he said on Friday. “Russia is limited by the laws of the economy, the scarce resources, and there is no endless labor resource in Russia.”
Kremlin’s cash has decreased as troops wages and recruitment of balloon bonds in the middle of the amazing inflation, according to the data of the Russian Ministry of Finance.
Only President Trump intervened in Moscow’s prospects on Friday, pointing out in a social publication of the truth that “Russia has to move” at the end of his war because “too many people (they are) dying, thousands of the week.”
That reality could create an openness for the United States to boost Russian President Vladimir Putin harder for a peace agreement. Putin has been storage negotiations after rejecting the proposal of Alto El Fuego de Alto the Trump agreement, a Ukraine agreement already agreed a month ago.
“The United States can use the enormous challenges that Russia will face in 2025 as leverage to ensure critical concessions in the ongoing negotiations to end the war by continuing and even expanding military support to Ukraine,” Christina Harward Wreote of ISW in a recent report in a recent report.
Reluctant fighters
Faced with a nation of reluctant warriors, Russia has had to accumulate signature bonuses for new recruits that, “it seems to us that Russians will not be able to recruit [enough] Replacements per month, “said Barros.
“Or they will have to raise prices to go after that demographic reduction [of untapped troops] Or money will be a restriction, at which time you will have to face difficult decisions about making another mobilization round. “
As the war crawls, Moscow has been forced to sacrifice higher incentive bonds to attract new troops despite inflation rates in Russia of more than 10%, approximately four times higher than that of the United States.
“The prolonged war of Russia and the high losses on the battlefield are already causing important economic problems in Russia, and the economic problems probably mature within another 12 to 18 months,” Harward wrote in the ISW report.
He thought that Russia has other areas from which funds can extract for their war apart from its decrease in the sovereign background of wealth, is the easiest place to find quick cash to finance the conflict, said Barros. In addition, “it would be a massive shame” if Moscow exhausts “this nest egg they build for two decades,” the possible domestic support from Russia to Putin and his war.
The general reluctance of the Russians to join the fight is only feeding economic bleeding.
For example, the country of Samara in January offered a $ 40,000 record to join high -risk assault squads in Ukraine that, according to reports, have a survival rate of 1 in 20 soldiers, independent research news at that time.
Such dramatic recruitment campaigns “suggest that the Russian recruitment rate has decreased” as registration rates shoot slowly and victims rates, according to the ISW report.
“The current monthly recruitment rate of Russia is equal to or just below the amount needed to replace the monthly victims rate of Russia individually,” Harward wrote.
But that rate is probably even lower, since Russia lost more than 48,000 troops both in December and January, in accordance with the latest data, while the vice president of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, said in the 20 mosquitoes for Perhothos of monthly recruits.
Altitious low
Moscow is currently suffering up or 1,200 victims per day, a rate that was the beginning of increasing at the end of last year “since Russian forces made gradual and progressive advances in eastern Ukraine,” according to ISW’s report.
Meanwhile, Ukraine, which is based on modern and live military technology that preserves military technology instead of the systems of the Soviet era of Russia, has a loss rate of approximately a victim for four Russian losses.
Even if Russia somehow manages to find funds to boost recruitment bonds and troops’ salaries, “it is unlikely that increasing financial incentives in the future will dramatically increase the recruitment”, agreeing to the report.
The publication in March interviewed Russian troops captured by Ukrainians who said they enlisted in the army for money, and very few mentioned joining a sincere patriotic duty, and none could for war.
Another indicator is the growing dependence of Moscow to recruit foreign troops, since North Korea sent up to 12,000 soldiers to fight last year and intends to send another approximately 4,000. And Ukraine also discovered, this week, that more than 150 Chinese citizens are serving in the Russian army.
But it is almost not enough that the total sent by North Korea alone “compensated nine to 12 days of Russian losses throughout the theater at current rates,” according to ISW.
Taking advantage
Moscow’s economic crunch presents an excellent opportunity for the United States to press Russia to finally meet Trump’s impulse for peace. That can be done through continuous military aid to Ukraine as Putin continues to delay high fire efforts, so kyiv can maintain his campaign that is eliminating Russian troops to unsustainable levels.
“Ukraine, with Western aid, can accelerate the timeline in which Putin feels the tension in the Russian economy and the Russian army, which forces Putin to face the difficult options of what he would like,” Harward wrote.
“The United States should call Putin’s cliff and force him to pay war costs for which Russia’s future has mortgaged.”
Currently, Russia is banning the assumption that the United States will not provide military help to Ukraine, said Barros. Without continuous help, the rates of innverable victims of Moscow will be reduced and will allow you to maintain their war even more.
“The center of gravity for this war is the continuous international support for Ukraine,” he said. “There will be a military solution to the conflict: it only depends, will it be a Russian victory in any way or the Ukrainian victory in some way?”
However, with time and resources not in favor of Russia, Barros even warned the White House that they have not reduced a fast treatment about an optimal an optimal with Moscow.
“Trump can extract the best treatment if he illuminates a little in the timeline that imposed herself (or end the war within 100 days after the inauguration). … really there is no season that you can go,” we are going to go and go and go and go and go and go and go and go and go and go and go, the maximum, the maximum to those who go to those who go at the same time, and that does that, and that puts it in it.