Over a month into government shutdown, no end in sight – but predictions rampant

It is said that everyone is critical.

But when it comes to the government shutdown, everyone is an oracle.

Especially when it comes to determining when it might end.

“[Democrats] are waiting to choose [Zohran] Mamdani, the communist who will soon be mayor of New York. And then I think things will go back to normal,” Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., said on FOX Business. “If we don’t reopen this week, I think it will happen sometime right before Thanksgiving.”

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Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, RW.Va., also offered her own prediction.

“I think this week could be the week,” Capito said on FOX Business.

But Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, wasn’t so sure.

“I don’t know what the predictions are based on,” Cornyn said on Fox. “We’re still looking for some rational behavior on the part of the Democrats who shut down the government. But it was a dumb idea at first. And it hasn’t gotten better since.”

Now everyone is looking for a ray of hope. A glimpse of reason why the government shutdown will not deepen.

But all this week represents is another opportunity. There have been multiple turning points along the way, but nothing has provided the same opportunity to end the shutdown as this week.

Yes, emergency food aid for the country’s neediest expired on Saturday. Air traffic is getting worse by the hour. Health care premiums formally skyrocketed on Saturday, which is why Democrats refused to fund the government in the first place.

But none of those developments have really forced the parties to return to the negotiating table. That’s why some have considered Tuesday’s election as a possible turning point.

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Mamdani is the favorite to become the next mayor of New York City. Republicans now project that the election is the reason Democrats haven’t budged on government funding. They believe that certain election results – a victory for the progressive Mamdani in New York coupled with what Republicans hope are defeats by former moderate Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., a candidate for governor of Virginia, and Rep. Mikie Sherrill, D-N.J., a candidate for governor of New Jersey – will prompt Democrats to act. Republicans believe such results will force Democrats to see their party out of touch.

“I hope that tomorrow’s election will be a change. A radical change in all of this,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana. “I hope that after everyone votes and goes into their rooms and does the calculation, well, ‘maybe, maybe we won’t have to hold that line anymore.'”

Republicans know the shutdown will end eventually. But if it ends soon, they want to shape the narrative that “Democrats gave in because of the election results.”

Consider that Republicans have been predicting the end of the shutdown for five weeks now.

“Cracks have begun to appear in the Democratic base,” Senate Majority Leader John Barrasso, R-Wyo., proclaimed on Oct. 1.

Republicans believed Democrats would concede within days once the shutdown began.

It never happened.

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The GOP then argued that Democrats were simply holding out until the “No Kings” protests on October 19 concluded, and that by then Democrats would have “proven they were fighting.”

“They won’t be able to reopen the government until after that demonstration,” Johnson predicted on Fox on October 10.

There was nothing of that.

The GOP then modified its argument that Democrats were about to give in because federal workers were missing their paychecks. Especially air traffic controllers.

“We’re getting to a point where the consequences of this are very real,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said on Fox on Oct. 23.

That theory also failed.

Republicans then pinned their hopes on the next missed paycheck, along with flight delays, the expiration of SNAP benefits and rising health premiums on November 1.

“The Democrats will completely collapse,” the senator predicted. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, on Fox over the weekend.

But nothing changed.

“We will not support a Republican, partisan spending bill that continues to destroy health care for the American people,” proclaimed House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. “That’s been our position. Week after week after week, and it will continue to be our position.”

Say what you want about the Democrats’ strategy. But they have not folded.

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Keep in mind that Republicans have tried in vain to convince Senate Democrats since mid-September to accept a Republican spending plan that would only fund the government through November 21.

“Now it’s getting close to a moot point,” Cornyn said. “What they’re going to do next, I don’t know.”

Thune proclaimed that the 21st is now a “lost” date.

A server asked House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-Louisiana, what the “deadline” was for Republicans to make another decision.

“With November 21 available, it’s not much [of] “It’s time to resolve differences,” Scalise responded.

There is now talk that Republicans will craft another short-term spending bill through January.

“The longer the track, the better,” Thune said. “I’m certainly listening to our colleagues and trying to determine where that landing site would be.”

But there is no guarantee that either chamber can pass such a measure, especially if Democrats’ key demands remain unaddressed.

In his daily prayer to open the Senate session, Senate Chaplain Barry Black implied that politicians needed help resolving the crisis simply because they were no closer to a resolution than they were at the end of September.

“Inspire our parliamentarians to come together to put out the fire of this government shutdown that has already burned much bigger than anticipated,” Black prayed.

It is too unpredictable to make a solid prediction about when the shutdown will end. But if you predict enough things, you will eventually get it right.

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So how about this prediction?

The closure will end.

Eventually.

And that’s truly the only safe prediction anyone can make at this point.